Housing, jobs key to lifting S&P toward record

NEW YORK --
With it appearing that Washington lawmakers are working their way past the “fiscal cliff,” many analysts say that the outlook for stocks in 2013 is good, as a recovering housing market and an improving jobs outlook helps the economy maintain a slow, but steady recovery.

Reasonable returns in 2013 would send the S&P 500 toward, and possibly past, its record close of 1,565 reached in October 2007.

A mid-year rally in 2012 pushed stocks to their highest in more than four years. Both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average posted strong gains in 2012. Those advances came despite uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election and bouts of turmoil from Europe, where policy makers finally appear to be getting a grip on the region’s debt crisis.

“As you remove little bits of uncertainty, investors can then once again return to focusing on the fundamentals,” says Joseph Tanious, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds. “Corporate America is actually doing quite well.”

Although earnings growth of S&P 500 listed companies dipped as low as 0.8 percent in the summer, analysts are predicting that it will rebound to average 9.5 percent for 2013, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. Companies have also been hoarding cash. The amount of cash and cash-equivalents being held by companies listed in the S&P 500 climbed to an all-time high $1 trillion at the end of September, 65 percent more than five years ago, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Assuming a budget deal is reached in a reasonable amount of time, investors will be more comfortable owning stocks in 2013, allowing valuations to rise, says Tanious.

Stocks in the S&P 500 index are currently trading on a price-to-earnings multiple of about 13.5, compared with the average of 17.9 since 1988, according to S&P Capital IQ data. The ratio rises when investors are willing to pay more for a stock’s future earnings potential.

The stock market will also likely face less drag from the European debt crisis this year, said Steven Bulko, the chief investment officer at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. While policy makers in Europe have yet to come up with a comprehensive solution to the region’s woes, they appear to have a better handle on the region’s problems than they have for quite some time.

Stocks fell in the second quarter of 2012 as investors fretted that the euro region’s government debt crisis was about to engulf Spain and possibly Italy, increasing the chances of a dramatic slowdown in global economic growth.

“There is still some heavy lifting that needs to be done in Europe,” said Bulko. Now, though, “we are dealing with much more manageable risk than we have had in the past few years.”

Next year may also see an increase in mergers and acquisitions as companies seeks to make use of the cash on their balance sheets, says Jarred Kessler, global head of equities at broker Cantor Fitzgerald.

While the number of M&A deals has gradually crept higher in the past four years, the dollar value of the deals remains well short of the total reached five years ago. U.S. targeted acquisitions totaled $964 billion through Dec. 27, according to data tracking firm Dealogic. That’s slightly down from last year’s total of $1 trillion and about 40 percent lower than in 2007, when deals worth $1.6 trillion were struck.

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Peeping tom suspect nabbed at Forever21 store at Sawgrass Mills mall

A suspected “peeping tom” was arrested Sunday after he was caught with video of women trying on clothes at the Forever21 store at the Sawgrass Mills mall.

Andre Clements, 30, has been charged with video voyeurism and disorderly conduct, Sunrise police said.

A manager at the store became suspicious when Clements, 30, was caught loitering in the dressing rooms. Customers also complained about Clements.

The manager alerted mall security, who called Sunrise police. When police arrived, the manager found several large slits in the curtain which separated the fitting room Clements was in and the adjoining fitting room.

In Clements possession police found a Sony camcorder with videos of young women changing clothes.

Clements admitted taping the women just before police had arrived.

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Hugh Hefner Ties the Knot!

It's official! Hugh Hefner married Crystal Harris in an intimate ceremony on New Year's Eve...

ET confirms that the 86-year-old Playboy founder and his 26-year-old model girlfriend were married at the Playboy Mansion in Los Angeles.

Related: Hugh Hefner's Fiancee Shows Off Engagement Ring

Harris was nicknamed the "Runaway Bride" for calling off the couple's first attempt at a wedding just days before the ceremony in June of 2011. The couple announced their engagement in December 2010.

This is the third marriage for the Playboy mogul, who first married Mildred Williams in 1949 and then wed Kimberley Conrad in 1989.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un wants better living standards, arms

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Tuesday called for improving the economy and living standards of his impoverished nation with the same urgency that scientists showed in successfully testing a long-range rocket recently.

Kim's first New Year's speech, delivered on state TV, was peppered with rhetoric, with calls for boosting the military's capabilities and making the science and technology sector world class. But other passages in the speech were also an acknowledgement of the poor state of the country's economy that has long lagged behind the rest of the region.

EPA

Kim Jong Un delivers a New Year's Day address in Pyongyang, North Korea.

North Korea has little arable land, is prone to natural disasters and struggles to grow enough food for its 24 million people.

The annual New Year's Day message lays out North Korea's policy goals for the year. But Kim gave no indication whether he plans to introduce economic reforms or allow free enterprise, except to say the economy should be underpinned by science and technology.

"The industrial revolution in the new century is, in essence, a scientific and technological revolution, and breaking through the cutting edge is a shortcut to the building of an economic giant," he said.

He then pointed at the success of a long-range rocket that North Korea fired on Dec. 12, ostensibly carrying a satellite into space.

"Let us bring about a radical turn in the building of an economic giant with the same spirit and mettle as were displayed in conquering space," he said.

North Korea has hailed the rocket as a big step in peaceful space exploration. Washington and others called the launch a banned test of ballistic missile technology and a step in Pyongyang's pursuit of a nuclear tipped long-range missile.

North Korea has tested two atomic devices since 2006, both times weeks after U.N. condemnation of a long-range launch. A recent analysis of North Korea's main nuclear test site indicates readiness for a possible third atomic explosion.

Kim made no mention of nuclear weapons, but indicated that military will continue to be boosted.

"The sector of defense industry should develop in larger numbers sophisticated military hardware of our own style that can contribute to implementing the Party's military strategy," he said.

"Only when it builds up its military might in every way can it develop into a thriving country and defend the security and happiness of its people," Kim said.

The speech itself was a signal that Kim will continue with a leadership style more in line with his gregarious grandfather, national founder Kim Il Sung who routinely addressed his people on New Year's Day, than with his father, Kim Jong Il, who avoided making public speeches. He never gave a TV address during his 17-year-rule, and his New Year's messages were published as joint editorials in the nation's three major newspapers.

With the speech — the first televised New Year's Day message by a North Korean leader in 19 years — Kim Jong Un has tried to tap into North Koreans' fond memories of his grandfather, said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in South Korea.

The rocket launch boosted public morale, Koh said. "Now people are expecting him to improve the economy and help them live better economically," Koh said. "Kim Jong Un knows that and feels the pressure of meeting that demand."

Kim, who took power after his father's death on Dec. 17, 2011, has asserted control over the government and the military by dismissing its powerful chief Ri Yong Ho. Some other officials who were viewed as more moderate, including Kim's uncle, Jang Song Thaek, were elevated.

South Korean president-elect Park Geun-hye has said she will make efforts in her five-year term to boost aid and engage North Korea.

"If Kim Jong Un is going to engineer a shift from 'military-first' to 'It's the economy, stupid,' he is going to need Seoul's encouragement, and he doesn't have five years to wait," John Delury, an analyst at Seoul's Yonsei University, wrote recently.

He said it's up to South Korea "to unclench its fist first, so that the leader of the weaker state can outstretch his hand."

Kim's speech avoided harsh criticism of the United States, its wartime enemy. North Korea has used past New Year's editorials to accuse the U.S. of plotting war.

In other signs of changes in the country — at least at a superficial level — North Korea also had its first grand New Year's Eve celebration, with residents of the capital treated to the boom of cannons and fireworks at midnight.

In Pyongyang, residents danced in the snow at midnight Monday to celebrate the end of a big year for North Korea, including the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung and the first year of Kim Jong Un's leadership. Fireworks lit up the cold night sky, and people stood in fur-lined parkas, taking photos and laughing and dancing with each other in plazas.

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Housing, jobs key to lifting S&P toward record

NEW YORK --
With it appearing that Washington lawmakers are working their way past the “fiscal cliff,” many analysts say that the outlook for stocks in 2013 is good, as a recovering housing market and an improving jobs outlook helps the economy maintain a slow, but steady recovery.

Reasonable returns in 2013 would send the S&P 500 toward, and possibly past, its record close of 1,565 reached in October 2007.

A mid-year rally in 2012 pushed stocks to their highest in more than four years. Both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average posted strong gains in 2012. Those advances came despite uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election and bouts of turmoil from Europe, where policy makers finally appear to be getting a grip on the region’s debt crisis.

“As you remove little bits of uncertainty, investors can then once again return to focusing on the fundamentals,” says Joseph Tanious, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds. “Corporate America is actually doing quite well.”

Although earnings growth of S&P 500 listed companies dipped as low as 0.8 percent in the summer, analysts are predicting that it will rebound to average 9.5 percent for 2013, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. Companies have also been hoarding cash. The amount of cash and cash-equivalents being held by companies listed in the S&P 500 climbed to an all-time high $1 trillion at the end of September, 65 percent more than five years ago, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Assuming a budget deal is reached in a reasonable amount of time, investors will be more comfortable owning stocks in 2013, allowing valuations to rise, says Tanious.

Stocks in the S&P 500 index are currently trading on a price-to-earnings multiple of about 13.5, compared with the average of 17.9 since 1988, according to S&P Capital IQ data. The ratio rises when investors are willing to pay more for a stock’s future earnings potential.

The stock market will also likely face less drag from the European debt crisis this year, said Steven Bulko, the chief investment officer at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. While policy makers in Europe have yet to come up with a comprehensive solution to the region’s woes, they appear to have a better handle on the region’s problems than they have for quite some time.

Stocks fell in the second quarter of 2012 as investors fretted that the euro region’s government debt crisis was about to engulf Spain and possibly Italy, increasing the chances of a dramatic slowdown in global economic growth.

“There is still some heavy lifting that needs to be done in Europe,” said Bulko. Now, though, “we are dealing with much more manageable risk than we have had in the past few years.”

Next year may also see an increase in mergers and acquisitions as companies seeks to make use of the cash on their balance sheets, says Jarred Kessler, global head of equities at broker Cantor Fitzgerald.

While the number of M&A deals has gradually crept higher in the past four years, the dollar value of the deals remains well short of the total reached five years ago. U.S. targeted acquisitions totaled $964 billion through Dec. 27, according to data tracking firm Dealogic. That’s slightly down from last year’s total of $1 trillion and about 40 percent lower than in 2007, when deals worth $1.6 trillion were struck.

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Frankel gets ready to play politics on a national stage

Her bags are packed. She’s found an apartment on Craigslist, and the utilities just got hooked up. And Lois Frankel, a Floridian for four decades, has a new and toasty winter coat, hat and boots.

On Tuesday, 20 years after she first hoped to move to Washington, D.C., Frankel finally will be making that journey north. Two days later, she’ll reach the pinnacle of her political career as she steps onto the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives, raises her right hand and takes the oath of office to become the newest member of Congress from Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Read the full story at Sun-Sentinel.com.

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Kim Kardashian is Expecting!

The rumors are true: Kim Kardashian is pregnant! The reality star's rep confirmed the news to ET after Kim's boyfriend Kanye West announced it Sunday night during his concert in Atlantic City.

According to the Associated Press, Kanye told the crowd of more than 5,000 at the Ovation Hall at the Revel Resort in song form: "Now you having my baby." The crowd cheered with approval, and the rapper also told the audience to congratulate his "baby mom" and that this was the "most amazing thing."

Pics: Five Years of Kim Kardashian Fashion

With the news officially out, a barrage of tweets from happy family members hit the Twitterverse Sunday night:

@KhloeKardashian: Keeping secrets is hard with so many family members! Especially when you are so freaking excited!!!!! LOVE is everything!!!!

@KrisJenner: Oh BABY BABY BABY!!

@KourtneyKardash: Been wanting to shout from the rooftops with joy and now I can! Another angel to welcome to our family. Overwhelmed with excitement!

@KendallJenner: whos excited about the KIMYE babbyyy?! :D weeee

@RealLamarOdom: I'm excited for Kanye and my sister! There's nothing like bringing life into this world! Let's keep Gods blessings coming!

Related: Kim and Kanye's Angel Ball Date Night

Reports that Kim and Kanye began dating began to swirl in March of 2012. Rumors that Kim was pregnant and experiencing morning sickness started to hit the Internet a short time ago, with some reporting that Kim was just battling the flu. Guess not! The star is reportedly about 12 weeks along.

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LI families displaced by Sandy put up in luxury apartments on Upper East Side for free

Gabriella Bass

Erin and Jim Joyce, along with their son James, were displaced from their home by Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Sandy moved them out — kind-hearted New Yorkers moved them on up.

Three Long Island families displaced by October’s hurricane have been put up in posh Upper East Side rentals ever since — for free.

The luxury 1-bedroom digs, which typically rent for $2,500 per month, have been a godsend to the families — whose lives were derailed by flood damage.

Surge waters flooded the first floor Long Beach home of Jerry Springer Show producer Lacy Edwards and her police officer husband, Brian.

When they heard through a friend that they could stay in a luxury rental for free, they were floored.

“It was unbelievable. We couldn’t pass it up and moved in right away... it really helped us a lot,” said Lacy. “There are really no words to describe how it made us feel. It’s overwhelming.”

They’re planning to rent a home in Long Beach next month so Lacy, who is expecting her third child in February, can be closer to her doctors.

“The stuff we lost were material things,” she said. “At the end of the day, it can all be replaced.”

Another two families stayed in the apartments only until recently, allowing them to get back on their feet.

That includes Erin Joyce, an accountant, who moved with her husband and 1-year-old son into a new Long Beach home one day before the storm — and were forced to evacuate from it the next day.

“We bought a house that didn’t need any work but within a couple of days it became a fixer-upper,” Joyce said.

And Antoinette Diamond and Anthony Borello lost all their possessions from their Long Beach basement rental in Sandy’s storm surge — including everything they were gathering for their upcoming wedding.

“It felt so good to take a hot shower and go to sleep in a bed,” Diamond said.

The pair recently moved in with Borello’s grandmother.

The apartments belong to the real estate investment firm Stone Street Properties, which was founded last year by Rob Morgenstern and Jeff Kaye.

“We talked about donating – money or clothes, but what we have are bricks, heat and water,” said Morgenstern. “All of a sudden that became a commodity.”

Kaye’s parents live in a Long Beach neighborhood that was ravaged by the flooding — which brought the plight of displaced families closer to home.

“It’s like a war zone out there. People’s homes were ripped to their foundations,” he said.

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South Florida’s biggest business stories of 2012

For South Florida’s economy, 2012 centered on one main question: Would the recovery continue?

The answer: Yes, and slowly.

Housing values continue to climb, unemployment rates shrink, hiring grows and spending strengthens. And yet 2012 ends on the same general theme as 2011: Things are getting better, but at a slow enough pace that South Florida will have to wait at least another year for a healthy recovery to begin.

Behind the broad economic tide, news crashed onto the scene. And now it falls on Business Monday to rank their significance.

We do this each year December as a way to put the year’s business news in perspective. For the rankings, we use three criteria.

First, how important was the news for South Florida’s economy? We only have 10 slots to fill, so the news needs to be big.

Second, how unique was the news to South Florida? National events can have major impacts in South Florida, but we’re looking for news that’s particularly noteworthy to the region.

Third, how unique was the news to this year? Long-term trends can impact an economy for years, but we’re looking for stories clearly linked to 2012.

On to the rankings...

10: One Community One Goal plan released

Miami-Dade’s economic development agency, the Beacon Council, spent more than a year drawing up what’s supposed to be a blueprint for the county’s economic future. We won’t know for years whether the One Community One Goal plan will actually guide leaders’ decisions as they decide on education priorities and corporate-recruitment targets. The authors of this report boasted that they were determined not to have the latest version seen as obsolete the way the 1996 version was. But with hundreds of people involved in the forums that led to the report, One Community One Goal is sure to be cited in debates and discussion about Miami-Dade’s economy for years to come.

9. Ryder gets a new CEO

It was a tumultuous year for the Miami-Dade trucking giant, which spent the summer backing off early predictions of strong recovery for clients. In July, Ryder CEO Gregory Swienton announced companywide cost cuts to combat flat sales in a year he had originally seen as going well. That move included 60 job cuts at Ryder’s headquarters in western Miami-Dade, out of 450 across the country The end of 2012 brought another big announcement: Swienton was retiring in two weeks, and handing over the top job to his longtime deputy, Ryder COO Robert Sanchez.

Swienton, 63, said he was looking forward to getting back to Texas, where most of his grandchildren live. The board praised Swienton’s 13-year tenure, which saw Ryder stock rise from $17 a share to $50 a share.

Sanchez, 47, is only the company’s fifth CEO since its founding in the Great Depression. A Miami native, he becomes one of only three CEOs of a Fortune 500 company headquartered south of Palm Beach County. The other: AutoNation’s Mike Jackson and World Fuel Services’ Michael Kasbar.

8. Miami Marlins Buyers Remorse

The debut season of Miami’s first official Major League Baseball team brought a string of disappointments on and off the field. Promises of a revitalized Little Havana retail scene around the tax-funded stadium instead brought vacant storefronts. Attendance, a big part of the economic argument for the $635 million stadium, ended up being the worst for a new ballpark in 30 years.

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For new year, resolve to commit random acts of kindness

Well, here we are, dear Friends and Neighbors, on the eve of another new year. So much happened to us in 2012 — some good and some bad. But through it all, by the grace of God, we made it to the end of the "old" year.

When I was a young woman, I made a new year’s resolution every year. The new year brings with it that kind of fresh-start magic.

To many of us, the new year really does mean having a second chance; a fresh start; a new beginning, another opportunity to do something that matters, to touch someone’s life in a positive way, and to do random acts of kindness.

I thought about the random-acts-of-kindness thing when, on Christmas day while in Washington, where my granddaughter Afra was appearing in My Fair Lady at the -Arena Stage Theater, I stumbled upon the perfect opportunity. Afra and I, and her mother Mary Anne, were on our way to have Christmas dinner with their longtime friends who live in Maryland. (A Radio City Music Hall Rockette since 2004, Afra had suffered with tendonitis in her right knee and decided to take this season off to let it heal.)

We got to the Metro station and found it practically empty. We headed for a bench where a man and woman were sitting and Afra motioned for me to take a seat. I spoke to the two individuals and wished them a Merry Christmas. A few minutes later, the woman who had been sitting on the bench moved away. She looked a bit uncomfortable. A few seconds later, I understood why. The young man seemed to be mentally challenged and needed to talk to someone about something that happened earlier at the facility where he lived.

Apparently there had been an argument with a caregiver at the facility, and he got upset and yelled at her. When I asked what was the matter, he started crying, "I yelled at her ... I didn’t mean to do it ... I was in a hurry to get to the station."

I touched his shoulder and tried to comfort him. "I’m sure she is not angry with you. She understood you were eager to get the train to spend Christmas with your mother." He stopped crying and told me his name was Gabriel. He asked my name. I told him and introduced him to my granddaughter and her mother, who were looking in disbelief at the two of us. Their eyes seemed to say, "Doesn’t Grandma know she is in a strange city and this man is a stranger who could be very dangerous?"

I did know. But somehow, this didn’t seem like a dangerous situation. Something in my heart said this was a chance to do a random act of kindness. I followed my heart. By the time our train came, Gabriel was smiling.

"I like you," he said. "You are a nice lady."

I reached out and offered a hug. He responded and soon my granddaughter and her mother were hugging him too. It was a wonderful feeling. Gabriel repeated our names over and over, pointing to each of us, so as not to forget them.

In a few minutes, we were at our stop. We said goodbye to our new friend and got off the train. We waved at him as the train pulled away. We didn’t say much about the incident, just smiled knowingly at each other. We knew we had just reached out to another soul who needed to be comforted and by doing so, we had spread a little Christmas cheer.

So, as I write this last column of 2012, I don’t have a list of new year resolutions. What I do have is a determination to live one day at a time, and try to live my life by reaching out to more Gabriels and offering comfort and spreading cheer and good will wherever I can. It may not be in the form of a hug. It just might be a warm smile, a "How do you do?", or "You look nice today". I learned from the Metro Station incident that it doesn’t take much to make somebody’s day. Just be kind. Make it a part of your everyday routine. No resolution is needed. Just do it.

And have a wonderful and healthy New Year!

Arts in the Gardens

Arts at St. Johns will kick off the New Year with the SALA Arts Social at 6:30 p.m. on Jan. 15 at the Miami Beach Botanical Gardens, 2000 Convention Center Dr. SALA is an acronym for Social Action, Local Arts, and is a multi-disciplinary, multi-sensory arts event featuring music, dance, the visual arts, refreshments, drinks, interactive DJ music, networking and a silent auction.

The artists include Tiffany “Hanan” Madera performing Mid-Eastern dance; DJ Madame Turk, who will mix new and old dance club music and Afro/Latin and Brazilian beats.

The visual arts will include a group show by the Artist Colony, a Miami artist collaborative. There will also be a selection of paintings, graphics and assemblages donated for the silent auction by Carol Hoffman-Guzman and her husband Robert Guzman. Carol is the founding director of Arts at St. Johns. She and her husband have been collecting local and emerging artists for over 40 years.

The event celebrates 12 years of SALA presenting performances and art at Arts at St. Johns. According to Hoffman-Guzman, SALA’s name was chosen because it is reflects Arts at St. Johns’ vision to present local artists and art forms and t use the arts to build community, nurture dialogue about social issues and seek to bring about change through the arts.

Tickets to the event are $75 each at the door or online at www.artsatstjohns.com or by calling Hoffman-Guzman at 305-613-2325.

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